Throughout the offseason, we often debate who is going to be in the running for NFL MVP in the coming season. But there isn’t much to base any arguments on. All we can do is talk about how well they played last year and why we think they will be better in the coming season.
The reigning MVP will often end up being favorited to win it again and will remain the favorite until someone knocks him off or he plays a bad enough game—which Patrick Mahomes did not have Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mahoes had a great day against the Jaguars completing 25 of 33 pass attempts for 378 yards and three touchdowns. So, yeah, he is going to remain the favorite for now (at +400). However, other players, with how they performed, deserve to be in the conversation as well (odds via SportsInteraction.com).
Tom Brady +800
Being in the MVP conversation is nothing new for Brady. It would be unusual if he weren’t. But heading into the season, there was a lot of concern over whether the passing game would suffer without Rob Gronkowski. Nothing like a 341-yard, three-touchdown day to prove the passing game needs Brady more than it needs Gronkowski.
With Antonio Brown now added to the wide receiver room, Brady could be in for a record year—and another MVP. Carson Wentz +900
Wentz liked like he was on his way to winning MVP a couple of years ago when he went down with a season-ending knee injury late in the year. The injury bug bit him and the team last year. But this year, he has a talented group of receivers, a healthy offensive line, and no health issues of his own (yet).
Overcoming a slow start to go 28-39 for 313 yards and three touchdowns will help him become a candidate once again.
Drew Brees +1000
Like Brady, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is a regular part of the MVP conversation from one year to the next. Fans and analysts, like Brady, expect his game to decline at any given moment. But with a 370-yard, two-touchdown day including a game-winning drive in the final 37 seconds, it does not appear as if Brees has lost anything.
If he can look like this for the remainder of the season, he may finally win his first MVP.
quarterback Drew Brees (9) NFL match between the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints | Mitch Gunn / Shutterstock.com
Deshaun Watson +1600
While he wasn’t able to lead the Texans to a win over the Saints Monday night, he showed the kind of resiliency and poise that will do him and the Texans well throughout the season. Since winning is vital to the NFL MVP conversation, he doesn’t belong there yet.
But if he can continue to play like he did (20-30 for 268 yards and three touchdowns with one interception; four carries for 40 yards and a touchdown), but come out on the winning end more often than not, he will deserve to be in the conversation.
Lamar Jackson +1800
Jackson for MVP is not something too many people seriously considered a possibility before the season started. Talk about Jackson centered more around whether he could be a legitimate NFL quarterback. But after going 17-20 for 324 yards and five touchdowns, he has his foot in the MVP-door.
Then again, as bad as the Dolphins are, maybe calling him an MVP candidate is jumping the gun.
Philip Rivers +2000
He is one of the best quarterbacks in the game and always among the most productive. But Rivers has yet to win an MVP. Starting the season off by going 24-34 for 331 yards and three touchdowns (with one interception) in an overtime win over the Colts will get his name in the conversation.
But beating the Chiefs will be the key to whether his name stays in the conversation or not.
Dak Prescott +2500
The debate around Prescott has centered around whether he can be the reason the team wins. Most believe that Ezekiel Elliot is the secret to the success for the Dallas Cowboys. But after throwing for 400+ yards and four touchdowns against the Giants, maybe he can be that guy.
To remain in the conversation and become a serious candidate, he will need to play as good or better when the team faces more competitive teams than the Giants.
Honorable Mentions
It is unusual for a quarterback not to win MVP making bets on non-quarterbacks inadvisable, but the following players had games that should raise eyebrows among voters:
- Christian McCaffrey (+3000): With 29 total touches (19 carries and ten receptions), he accounted for 209 yards of offense and two touchdowns. Forget Cam Newton; McCaffrey is the one guy the Panthers can’t do without.
- Alvin Kamara (+4000): While Brees and Wil Lutz have been getting all of the credit for the win over Houston Monday night, Kamara’s 169-total yards (20 touches) made the win possible.
- DeAndre Hopkins (+8000): Receivers rarely get serious consideration for MVP, but with the catches he made Monday night and his overall productivity (eight receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns), if he can keep it up, he may be in the race.
Our Betting Tips and Prediction For MVP
Who knows; if any of these guys can maintain a similar level of play throughout the season, one of them could win it. But who? Who should you put your money on?
Brady will remain in the mix, but voters will look for someone else just because he is always in the mix (and has won a few). Don’t bank on Wentz or Jackson maintaining a sufficient level of play or for Watson to stay healthy enough to remain in contention.
At this point, the most intriguing bets are Dak Prescott and Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys will always have eyes on them, so if Prescott can continue to be the reason the Cowboys win, he will have had an MVP-worthy season.
But if McCaffrey can set the single-season all-purpose yards record (currently 2696 yards; set by Darren Sproles in 2011), he should win. He is now on pace for 3344 total yards.