NFL Betting Tips: Which Head Coach Will Be The First To Go?

NFL Head Coach To Leave

What have you done for me lately? Janet Jackson coined a phrase that would last for generations when she sang those lyrics back in 1986. Over the years, they have almost become a mantra in professional sports. This is especially true in the NFL where coaches are often given two or three years to take a weak team and turn it into a competitor.

nfl betting tips

Which Head Coach Will Be The First To Go?| bertoncelj / Shutterstock.com

If they succeed, they get to keep their job for another year or two; fail and get fired. So—who will be the first to go this season?

The Odds

Just like the coin flip at the Super Bowl, the head coach that loses his job first is something fans can bet on. The odds on who will go are as follows (according to 888.sport):

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Betway Review

2019-2020 First NFL Head Coach To Leave

  • Jay Gruden  +400
  • Matt Patricia  +550
  • Pat Shurmur  +700
  • Doug Marrone  +800
  • Ron Rivera  +1600
  • Jason Garrett  +1800
  • Kyle Shanahan  +2200
  • Dan Quinn  +2500
  • Jon Gruden, Sean McDermott  +2800
  • Bill O’Brien, Mike Tomlin, Mike Zimmer  +3000
  • Brian Flores, Adam Gase, John Harbaugh, Kliff Kingsbury, Mike Vrabel  +3300
  • Matt LaFleur, Vic Fangio, Freddie Kitchens, Zak Taylor  +4000
  • Bruce Arians, Pete Carroll, Sean Payton  +5000
  • Frank Reich  +6000
  • Anthony Lynn  +6600
  • Andy Reid, Matt Nagy  +10000
  • Bill Belichick, Doug Pederson  +15000
  • Sean McVay  +25000

NFL fans and team owners want to see results. They want to see bad teams become good ones, good ones become better ones, and for the better ones to achieve greatness. If it doesn’t happen in a timely manner, fans and front offices are probably going to move on.

Technically, no one is safe. But some are more likely to go than others and some that will not lose their jobs no matter what. So—who’s going to go? Let’s take a closer look at the candidates and figure it out.

Something to Keep in Mind

It is easy to operate under the assumption that you need to bet on the first person to get fired. But that is not the case. The wager is asking for the first person ‘to leave.’ That means they could retire, quit, step down (for health reasons)—and get fired.

But the question is not specific to getting fired—just the first to leave his job, regardless of the reason.

NFL Head Coach To Leave

Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson celebrates the Super Bowl LII win, 2018, | Matt Smith Photographer / Shutterstock.com

If anyone is going to retire or need to step down for health reasons (or anything else), chances are it would be one of the older coaches. So, when deciding who to bet on, it may be good to be aware of how old everyone is:

  • 30’s: Sean McVay, Zak Taylor, Brian Flores, Kliff Kingsbury, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan
  • 40’s: Adam Gase, Matt Nagy, Mike Vrabel, Freddie Kitchens, Matt Patricia, Mike Tomlin, Dan Quinn, Bill O’Brien
  • 50’s: Anthony Lynn, Doug Pederson, Jay Gruden, Jason Garrett, Pat Shurmur, Jon Gruden, Sean McDermott, Sean Payton, Doug Marrone, John Harbaugh, Ron Rivera, Frank Reich
  • 60’s: Vic Fangio, Andy Reid, Mike Zimmer, Bruce Arians, Sean Payton, Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll

Brand New Coaches

While no one is safe, more often than not, new head coaches are given a pass in their first season. Not that it is okay for them to have a bad year, but it is understood that it can take at least a season for a coach to get the entire team on the same page.

But while they are not immune to getting fired after one season, first-year head coaches are usually safe. So, don’t waste your money betting on the following guys:

  • Kliff Kingsbury
  • Zac Taylor
  • Freddie Kitchens
  • Vic Fangio
  • Matt LeFleur
  • Brian Flores
  • Adam Gase
  • Bruce Arians

Narrowing the Field Further

Disregard the eight new head coaches, and you still have 24 legitimate candidates. But the field can certainly be narrowed down some.

Some coaches are not going to get fired unless they get busted being involved in some insane, nefarious, and/or borderline illegal scandal. Bill Belichick, for instance, is not going anywhere until he decides he wants to.

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The same can probably be said about Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Andy Reid, Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, and yes—Jason Garrett. His position with the Dallas Cowboys may seem a little tenuous this season since Jerry Jones didn’t give him an extension in the offseason, but if he does go, he will not be the first.

Other guys have done a good job and have led their team to a degree of success, which would likely mean one lousy season will not do them in. Matt Nagy and Frank Reich are not going anywhere. Mike Vrabel is likely safe as is Anthony Lynn and Ron Rivera.

That leaves Matt Patricia, Pat Shurmur, Jon Gruden, Sean McDermott, Doug Marrone, Dan Quinn, Bill O’Brien, Mike Zimmer, and Jay Gruden.

Our 2019 NFL Head Coach Prediction & Betting Tip

Go with Jay Gruden. He is the favorite so you will win the least, but there is a better case for him to be the first to go than anyone else. No other head coach has been in his position as long (since 2014) with a losing record (35-44-1).

While the Redskins have the potential to be better this season, they may not have enough potential to save his job.

So, take Jay Gruden at +400 to ‘leave’ his job first.