The NFL offseason has been as exciting as it always is. We’ve seen some big-time coaching changes, a ton of free agents coming and going, and a fair number of blockbuster trades. It is not hard to see where many of the moves that have been made are going to have an impact on the 2019 season.
Some teams will be better; some will not.
Oddsmakers have seen enough to project how many games they think each team could win this season. These numbers could very well change in a few weeks following the draft. So, then why should we even pay attention to these early projections?
Some of the projections made by oddsmakers are low. Some are high. But after the draft, when they are eventually recalculated, the new projections may be a little harder to make a prediction off.
Basically, if you are going to bet on the win totals for some of these teams, you better do so now.
Some of the totals are not worth even considering. For many, the line on the over and under is the same. If the oddsmakers can see it going either way, then those are totals you should stay away from for now. But there is a good handful where that is not the case.
The following are some of the more compelling win totals (according to BetOnline.ag as of April 6):
- Arizona Cardinal 5.5 wins
- Buffalo Bills 6.5 wins
- Dallas Cowboys 8.5 wins
- Green Bay Packers 9.5 wins
- Houston Texans 8.5 wins
- Jacksonville Jaguars 8 wins
- New York Giants 6 wins
Arizona is going to be an exciting team to follow this season with new head coach Kliff Kingsbury in charge. If he can turn the Cardinals offense into something resembling what he had at Texas Tech—the rest of the league better look out.
As for their win total, though, it is not hard to see them winning five or six games. They won just three last year, but Kingsbury’s offense is going to make them more of a challenge. How much of a challenge will depend on who the quarterback ends up being.
For now—stay away from them but keep an eye on them. What about the other guys?
Buffalo had a great defense last season. But the offensive line was terrible and made it very hard for Josh Allen to learn the NFL game; he was too busy running from it. The line is going to be better this year, and they even picked up a few new weapons for Allen.
It is not hard to see the Bills pick up a win or two this season. Take the over.
Dallas has won ten, nine, and 13 games the last three seasons. It is hard to see why oddsmakers knocked their projected win total down to 8.5. They must be banking on the Eagles being better but with the Redskins and Giants likely being worse, it will not matter.
Their offensive line is not as dominant as it once was, but the Cowboys will be good for ten wins behind it. Take the over.
The Green Bay Packers have arguably the best quarterback in football in Aaron Rodgers. But for the last two seasons, the Packers have been a sub-.500 team. Getting rid of Mike McCarthy will help, but they still have roster holes to fill. Take the under on 9.5 wins.
Why the Houston Texans projected total is only 8.5 after an 11-win season is kind of a mystery—unless they are counting on their incredibly bad offensive line getting Deshaun Watson knocked out of the season early. The defense lost a couple of pieces but will still be solid next season.
Jacksonville will be better and could steal a win, but the Texans will still be good for nine or ten wins Take the over.
The one total that is as close as you can get to a lock has to be the New York Giants. They only won five last year, and the roster got much worse than it already was. But they are projected to win six.
Take the under and smile.