Below we describe some of the key factors in play that are likely to impact US Presidential election odds for the November 2020 vote. There are several key betting markets that give both an insight into the current situation and provide interesting opportunities with US election odds.
Who Will Be The Republican Party Nominee?
At the time of writing in mid-March 2020, it is inconceivable that the Republican Party could nominate anyone other than Donald Trump to run in November. This certainty is despite the many scandals, constant chaos of his term and impeachment by Congress.
There have been rumours that Vice President Mike Pence has been considering a run and is fundraising in earnest, but that is more likely to be related to strengthening his position so that he can be on the ticket and, if possible, get another four years as Vice President, than an actual run for the White House. Betfair currently has odds for Pence to be the Republican Party nominee at 16.5 with every other possible challenger to Trump at 30 or higher. Some of the more credible names that you can back include Paul Ryan and Nikki Haley.
The harsh reality though is that very few people will want to get on the wrong side of Trump’s twitter feed and therefore, his base. As amazing as it may seem, that twitter account has insulated Trump from everything and will continue to do so.
Who Will Be The Democratic Party Nominee?
Just a few months ago the Democratic Party nominee race was wide open. At one point there were twenty-two candidates filling up debate stages. Now, in mid-March, the race has been whittled down to just Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. It seems that Biden now has a lead that will be very difficult for Sanders to overcome, but there are still some possible betting options.
Bernie Sanders speaks during a campaign rally at the Family Arena in Saint Charles, Missouri.
Firstly, it is possible to place bets on Bernie Sanders at 75/1 on Betfair! For a two horse race those are amazing odds. In the current situation it is not impossible to imagine that a 70-something candidate could find himself in hospital and unable to campaign for some weeks. At 75/1 that is a great value bet. The major bookmakers all have very unbalanced books, having taken a lot of political bets in Europe for Bernie Sanders, so the resurgence of Biden’s campaign has provided some relief.
Biden has stated that he wishes to have a female running mate, while Sanders has hinted that this would be his preference. This has almost removed men from the Vice Presidential running mate betting market. The job of a VP running mate is to “carry” a certain demographic of voters, such as when LBJ “carried the south” for JFK. In the modern era, a Democratic VP needs to be able to carry an ethnic group, such is America’s diversity. The current favourites are Kamala Harris, Stacy Abrams and Amy Klobuchar, each with short odds. It is easy to imagine how Harris or Abrams would be able to further motivate a substantial proportion of African American voters which is critical if Democrats are to win in November. If you wanted to look for a small punt on an outsider, Beto O’Rourke (at odds of around 100/1) and Pete Buttigieg (at odds of around 150/1) would both bring interesting demographic audiences with them, they just happen to both be men…
Who Will Be Next President Of The United States?
The Presidential odds have changed dramatically in March. Joe Biden’s impressive Super Tuesday result leap-frogged him over Bernie Sanders as the Democratic Party favourite. Then, just days later, the unfolding situation happening worldwide, offered a direct comparison between him and President Trump. Suddenly, with one leader offering calm advice and the other going through the usual tweet storm of chaos, appointing Mike Pence (who has a record of arguing against science) to run the government’s crisis team and then denial that he is to blame for anything, Joe Biden looked and was much more presidential than the President.
Joe Biden (D) speaks to attendees of the the 20th annual “King Day At The Dome” rally held at the S.C. Statehouse
The secondary feature of the current worldwide situation on the presidential odds relate to the stock market. For three years Donald Trump has been quite clear that as long as he makes American’s wealthier, he can do what he likes, and mostly they have allowed him to. Whatever happens, good or bad, he highlights the stock market prices at record levels. However, it has just wiped years of gains off the market. While Trump did not cause the current worldwide situation, the buck will stop with him when it comes to how America deals with it. So far, his handling of the situation has failed to display administrative competence.
The result is that on the Betfair exchange the presidential odds of Joe Biden now make him a slight favourite to become the next President.
Whatever happens, US election odds will continue to change. This campaign will evolve much more rapidly than normal. If hospital numbers continue to rise and the stock market continues to fall, they will provide a rod for Biden and pundits to beat Trump with. In those swings will be temporary odds that offer opportunities for savvy gamblers.