NFL Updated Win Totals Best Bets, Odds & Projections: AFC Edition

After just two weeks of NFL football, we have seen that some teams are exceeding expectations while others are falling short. In some cases, teams are what we thought they’d be so far. Of course, bookmakers are forced to adjust season win totals as the season unfolds. Let’s take a look at some of the most interesting changes and try to find some betting value for your AFC projected win totals.

Tennessee Titans

Opening Win Total:             8.5 @ -125/+105

Current Win Total:  9.5 @ -134/+110

Bookmakers gave the Titans a bit of respect heading into the season. Tennessee’s getting a bit more respect after a 2-0 start. Of course, the overall weakness of the AFC South may have contributed to raising their projected win total by a full game. The thing is, the Titans’ two opening wins weren’t exactly convincing.

Nevertheless, they were wins and Tennessee has some favorable matchups ahead of them including Minny, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit. They also have two games against Indy and Houston along with another against Jacksonville. Still, 9.5 wins appears to be a half win too many making the plus money a decent bet.

Denver Broncos

Opening Win Total:             7.5 @ -110/-110

Current Win Total:  5.5 @ -134/+110

The Broncos haven’t just been losing on the scoreboard; they are also losing a war of attrition as the team has several key injuries to deal with. Besides, the team appears to be no different than it has been over the past couple of seasons. They have a fairly solid defense, but not much of an offense. The good news is that they can look forward to games against Miami, the Jets, and Carolina. The bad news is the rest of their schedule. Look for bookmakers to continue dropping Denver’s win total as the season progresses.

Buffalo Bills

Opening Win Total:             8.5 @ -160/+125

Current Win Total:  9.5 @ +118/-143

This isn’t really much of an adjustment when we factor in the juice. Yes, Buffalo is off to a 2-0 start, but those wins came against cream puffs in the Dolphins and the Jets. And it’s not like they destroyed either of those teams. Of course, Buffalo has the privilege of playing both of those teams once again as well as Denver, but they must also contend with the likes of the Rams, Titans, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Niners, and Steelers. Their two upcoming games against the Pats won’t be a walk in the park either. This team might win the division, but they don’t look like a 10-win team yet.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Win Total:             9 @ -120/+100

Current Win Total:  9.5 @ -134/+110

So, bookies essentially tacked on a half-win and inflated the juice. Pittsburgh has looked pretty good on both sides of the ball to start the season despite those wins coming against a pair of winless teams. They will be in tough against the Ravens, but they should be able to find success against Cincinnati and Cleveland. Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Washington, Houston, Tennessee, and Indy should also combine to give the Steelers a few wins. Assuming they drop their two games to Baltimore, Pittsburgh would need to win 8 of their remaining 12 games to reach 10 wins. It’s very doable.

New York Jets

Opening Win Total:             6.5 @ +120/-140

Current Win Total:  4.5 @ -104/-118

It’s safe to say that bookmakers overestimated the New York Jets when they gave them an opening win total of 6.5. It’s quite clear that Gang Green is going nowhere fast with such an underwhelming defense and underachieving offense. While they may have a chance against Miami and Denver, the rest of their schedule does not look promising at all. This team is a prime candidate to enter tank mode before they hit the halfway point of the season. You thought that the opening projection of 6.5 was high? Well, the current projection of 4.5 wins is still way too high.

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