Super Bowl LIII is almost here and for millions and millions that means two things—they are going to watch their first football game of the season, and they may even put a little money on it. Yes, they are not football fans, but they are going t bet on the game anyway.
Why? Because when you go to a Super Bowl party that is just something you do.
Betting on the game makes it more interesting. If you are not a football fan already, having some money invested in the outcome is a great way to make the game more compelling to watch. Sure, it would be even sweeter to win a little money. But the bet is just part of the experience, win or lose.
However, winning would sure make the experience a whole lot better. But don’t worry, you don’t have to rely on what your buddy tells you.
You certainly don’t have to count on what the self-proclaimed experts at your party say. Some trends can help you make a solid educated guess.
It is worth pointing out one very important thing about trends—they are just commonalities that people notice in data sets after the fact. They are not meant to be nor should they be seen as prophetic. But if you are looking for a reason to bet one way or another without doing your homework on the two teams, well—they’re better than nothing.
- Favorites are 35-17 straight up and 28-20-2 against the spread.
- Only six favorites have won and failed to cover the spread.
- Only four favored teams have covered the spread in the last 17 Super Bowls; the Patriots have been unable to cover in five of their last six Super Bowl appearances.
- The last seven times the spread was three points or less, the over was covered six times.
- The previous three times the spread was three points or less, the underdog won.
- In Super Bowls where the spread was three points or less, the over was covered just 50 percent of the time.
- The over has been covered in 27 of 52 Super Bowls.
- When the line moves by 1.5 points or more, the team it moves in favor of has gone 14-2 straight up and 12-4 against the spread. Since the line opened, it has shifted in favor of the Patriots by 2.5 points.
- If a game is a rematch, the underdog has gone 5-2 against the spread. The Rams and Patriots played in Super Bowl XXXVI.
- When the game has been a rematch, the team that won the first time is 4-2.
- The team with less Super Bowl experience has won eight of the last 12 Super Bowls. New England will have the more experienced roster by far this year.
- Having a better regular season record has meant little in recent years. The team with fewer wins is 10-2 in the last 13 Super Bowls (identical records last year).
‘Other’ Trends Worth Knowing
If you use any of the above trends as part of your reason for backing a team, you may find yourself in danger of being someone that the ‘football’ guys want to talk to. They may think you know your stuff so after a couple of beers, they may wish to debate strategy or whether Tony Romo is a better broadcaster than Troy Aikman.
So, if you don’t want to get caught up in one of those conversations, use one of these trends as your reason for backing someone:
- Whoever wore white jerseys won 12 of the last 14 Super Bowls.
- The AFC has won five of the last six Super Bowls broadcast by CBS. They have also gone 4-2 against the spread.
- The AFC has gone 7-4 since 2001 when a male led halftime act.
- The NFC always wins when the Super Bowl is in Atlanta (2-0).
- When the Super Bowl is held in a dome, the NFC is 15-4, straight up (stadiums with retractable roofs excluded).
- NFC teams are 3-2 when former Dallas Cowboys is calling the game.
These trends may not help you win any money, but they will help you avoid getting stuck talking to ‘football’ guy all night.